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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 18:23:38 GMT -5
Nellie you snake in the grass. Rich Hill was my pick. Low risk, maybe awesome reward? Great pick. Thanks. I have a glut at SP now, but like you said, low risk/reward. Smoltz won't be around until June. Buchholz will probably not have a starting gig at first either. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 18:29:11 GMT -5
Perhaps our blog should be only about FLB analysis and not our own league analysis.
Perhaps we should limit info about this league and our opinion of trades, picks, and so on to references and examples made during general analysis. That way, we can refrain from seeing this snowball effect in future instances.
Thoughts?
And Mack, this league is the best on the planet without over-analyzing the Cajun.
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Post by drkaraoke on Feb 4, 2009 18:34:19 GMT -5
lol im loving it
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 19:10:10 GMT -5
Let's pick a new MLB scapegoat:
Where is Adam Dunn going to end up?
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Post by varsity18 on Feb 4, 2009 19:11:49 GMT -5
Hmmm..... Braves?
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Post by Bobby Ayala - Matt on Feb 4, 2009 19:16:28 GMT -5
Perhaps our blog should be only about FLB analysis and not our own league analysis. Perhaps we should limit info about this league and our opinion of trades, picks, and so on to references and examples made during general analysis. That way, we can refrain from seeing this snowball effect in future instances. Thoughts? Is anyone in the world reading that blog besides us? If so, do they have any idea who any of us are? Or do they just know us by our team names? I don't think it matters, really, unless you want to pull the plug on the whole thing because people's feelings might get hurt. |
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Post by varsity18 on Feb 4, 2009 19:17:55 GMT -5
whose feeling is gonna get hurt???
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Post by Bobby Ayala - Matt on Feb 4, 2009 19:18:54 GMT -5
Yeah, I'll bring up 2 year old splits when talking about a player who's played--- wait for it----- 2 years. Are you saying you only factor in what a player did last year? My point with Swisher is that he's an example of a power bat available (who qualifies at 1B as well as OF,) when Pucketteers traded Peavy & Roberts to acquire power and a 1B. If he had taken Swisher (or Konerko, or someone else similar,) he would still have Peavy and Brian Roberts, and he would've gotten his power. THis is good, now I actually care what happens to FOntenot this year. In August we'll look back and somebody will look like a genius. The point, Bobby, is that you're cherry picking. You took the worst 100 AB stretch of Fontenot's young career, and said "look at that, he's bad!", despite what he had done for the first half of the year & what he did last year, that's cherry picking. No, I don't only look at 1 year's worth of stats, but I do look at what a young player does in his previous year & put more weight on that than what he did for the 2nd half 2 years ago. Ausin also got Chipper Jones out of that deal, another power bat. Roberts SB's were expendable to someone who owns Beltran, Gomez, & Reyes. My point about Swish is that he's not a credible power bat period. And my point is that you are putting words in my mouth. I never said he was bad, I was sighting examples of why I thought he was taken too early, one of which was signs of inconsistency in the near-past. I also never said anything about DeWitt or Iwamura but you said I did. If you didn't misrepresent what I said I would've dropped it a long time ago. |
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Post by Bobby Ayala - Matt on Feb 4, 2009 19:19:14 GMT -5
whose feeling is gonna get hurt??? Gary's |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 19:19:29 GMT -5
I was thinking the Braves also. He's sitting on an offer from the Nats, as one can tell he doesn't really want to go there. Dunn could be a Mariner if Seattle can unload the small handful of overpaid bums, but... It doesn't seem likely to me.
Braves, Nats, Royals (1B)? Angels? I'm not sure what to think at this point. It baffles me that he's still out there in spite of aspirations for a lofty contract.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 19:21:29 GMT -5
I could give a shit about what's posted as long as it's civil and focused on Fantasy Baseball. I merely asked for the opinions of others in case some cavities are getting salty.  |
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Post by Bobby Ayala - Matt on Feb 4, 2009 19:21:55 GMT -5
ESPN's 2009 projections are pretty funny as usual. Ryan Garko will drop 65 RBI but pick up about 100 in OBP. Obviously. Manny Parra only qualifies at RP. Anyone else have some doozies out there?
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Post by varsity18 on Feb 4, 2009 19:22:44 GMT -5
I guess 40 homers doesnt matter as much as it used too...
How about Griffey. He said he wants about 5-6 mil, but said it would pay for itself with the revenue he would bring in..
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 19:29:04 GMT -5
You said the next 5 to 6 2B taken were better than Fontenot, DeWitt & Iwamura were in that class. That is not puttting words into your mouth.
You're right, you never said Fontenot was bad, but by trying to discredit the pick, you said that the next 5 to 6 2B were better & that his inconsistancy 2 years ago was an indication that he was not as good as the pick warrants. So, close enough. I guess it's not that he's bad, just not very good since more than half of the 2B in MLB are better.
I'd hardly call that a misrepresentation of what you said. If you say a players not as good as most, then he's not very good, or bad.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 19:31:05 GMT -5
Pelfrey: 4.01 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 11-11 record with 98 K.
Um... What?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 19:32:59 GMT -5
Griffey at $6 million for one year is a really, really good deal. And he's in great shape, so why the hell not? He should go anywhere he wants, really. Whoever has enough money should be happy to pick him up, in my opinion.
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 19:35:48 GMT -5
Griffey at $6 million for one year is a really, really good deal. And he's in great shape, so why the hell not? He should go anywhere he wants, really. Whoever has enough money should be happy to pick him up, in my opinion. How much do you think Abreu will end up going for then? Griffey is a great deal at $6 mil, but the market is still flooded with corner OF's that I doubt he'll get that much. |
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 19:36:31 GMT -5
Looks like Fontenot's going to suck it up in '09, according to ESPN. LOL
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 19:37:27 GMT -5
I think the Nats are the only ones offering up anything substantial to Dunn.
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Post by Rusty Trombones - Jackson on Feb 4, 2009 19:40:04 GMT -5
Exactly. Aybar has just as much a job as Fontenot does, should hit for a similar average, will have less homers and RBI but more steals and runs. And he went 180 picks later. If he totally falls on his face I've risked very little. If Fontenot has a Joe Inglett year, it cost a high pick when there were other quality players to take. Fontenot isn't a terrible pick, just a risky one. And there's a big difference for me between reaching for a 23 year old power hitting top prospect that plays at Coors and a 29 year old average to good player that's getting a shot at regular PT for the first time. Aybar scored 53 runs in 346 AB's. Fontenot scored 42 in 243. = Aybar does not score more runs Aybar will be lucky to get a .300 OBP. By your own account, Fontenot will have around a .360 OBP = Fontenot kills Aybar in OBP Aybar had a .277 AVG last year. Fontenot had a .305. = Fontenot had a much better avg than Aybar. As I already said, Aybar will have more SB's by about 10. Everything else, Fontenot is better to much better (OBP) than Aybar. That is not comparable in FBB standards. Aybar is a defensive replacement, and has no offensive value. You can say that you can't compare a 23 YO propect to a 28 YO all you want, but with what we know right now, Fontenot will have more FBB value as an everyday 2B FOR THIS YEAR than Stewart will just like he did last year with roughly the same number of AB's. That was my point, in case you missed it. You can't really say Aybay has 'no offensive value'. That's a little bit of a stretch. Yes I get your point, and my argument is not that Fontenot isn't a good player, or even that Aybar is better. As of today, he isn't. My point is that I'd rather have another player in the 4th round, and that the dropoff from Fontenot to Aybar 10+ rounds later isn't that severe. Aybar has has more success in the minors, and in my opinion has more upside than Fontenot. He had a couple of 50 sb years, and is a career .312 hitter with a .350 OBP in the minors compared to Fontenot's .291/.366, so we can't really assume Fontenot is going to blow him away in either catagory. As for Aybar being 'lucky' to have a .300 OBP this year, it was .314 last year, no reason to think as a 24 year old getting a shot to start for the first time entering a season that he can't repeat, or even improve. I'm not debating Stewart v Fontenot as second baseman, I don't think Stewart will get eligibility there at all, so yes Fontenot will have more value at 2B. Ian Stewart was a bad pick for the round, but I still like him this year. If he gets a chance to play everyday, I would bet he has a better year than Fontenot. |
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 20:02:26 GMT -5
If you want to pick on the Fontenot pick, then you need to pick on everyone around him as well. As I said before, Lind, Bartlett, Swisher, & Polanco seem to have very questionable value and were all drafted around Fontenot. That has been my contention to begin with. He was the 190th player taken. Comparable to the 16th round in a regular 12 team league. Stewart was not a bad pick for the round. I was looking at him too, and would have drafted him if I could have. Point was that he will have less value than Fontenot this year because of the difference in production from a 2B to an OF. If he does that, then he's as valuable or more valuable than many of the players taken around him. That's not a bad pick! That's all I've been trying to say!
Did you catch Aybar's SB% in the minors when he was stealing all those bases? SB/CS 51/36 in A ball 49/23 in AA ball & 32/18 in AAA ball. That doesn't translate well into MLB. In the 1 year that he played AAA, his OBP was .327. None of that bodes well for the Big Show, IMO. Saying he'll be lucky to get over a .300 OBP was an exaggeration, but is .314 much better compared to .360?
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Post by Lunatic Fringe on Feb 4, 2009 20:18:35 GMT -5
If you want to pick on the Fontenot pick, then you need to pick on everyone around him as well. As I said before, Lind, Bartlett, Swisher, & Polanco seem to have very questionable value and were all drafted around Fontenot. That has been my contention to begin with. He was the 190th player taken. Comparable to the 16th round in a regular 12 team league. Stewart was not a bad pick for the round. I was looking at him too, and would have drafted him if I could have. Point was that he will have less value than Fontenot this year because of the difference in production from a 2B to an OF. If he does that, then he's as valuable or more valuable than many of the players taken around him. That's not a bad pick! That's all I've been trying to say! Did you catch Aybar's SB% in the minors when he was stealing all those bases? SB/CS 51/36 in A ball 49/23 in AA ball & 32/18 in AAA ball. That doesn't translate well into MLB. In the 1 year that he played AAA, his OBP was .327. None of that bodes well for the Big Show, IMO. Saying he'll be lucky to get over a .300 OBP was an exaggeration, but is .314 much better compared to .360? Adam Lind is going to hit 25 HR and I don't want to hear another word about it.  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 20:51:40 GMT -5
I'd expect Abreu and Dunn to get around $8 million each for a year. Griffey at $5 to $6 million seems pretty fair. All I'm saying is a team that's willing to pass on Griffey when he appears to be healthy might be making a bad choice. I think he's a nice player to have handy for a few million over a one-year deal in spite of his age. He's an ideal DH in my mind.
Abreu and Dunn are better options overall, that's for sure. Hell, I heard there's a possibility that Griffey could go as low as a one-year/$1M contract. That would be ridiculous, wouldn't it?
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Post by Nellie's Holler on Feb 4, 2009 20:53:12 GMT -5
Would Griffey play for that?
This market is fucked up.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 20:54:48 GMT -5
I'm not sure what's going on. Giambi accepted that low contract from the A's, so....
"ANYTHING'S POSSIBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEE!!!!!!" -- Kevin Garnett
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Post by Nuke LaLoosh Express on Feb 4, 2009 20:55:32 GMT -5
If Griffey does play for that it will be with the Mariners.
I'll have a blog post about all this later.
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Post by Lunatic Fringe on Feb 4, 2009 20:59:42 GMT -5
I was thinking about Guillen instead of Thames since he'll play every day until I saw the Royals paid him $12,000,000 last year. WTF?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2009 21:03:14 GMT -5
Kansas City made the deal in desperation pre-2008 for a big bat. Kind of sucks, and they couldn't swap him out this off-season like they wanted (rumors of a Guillen-Luis Castillo swap went dead rather quickly, for example). The weirdest part is they paid him that total in spite of the 25-game suspension to start the '08 season, though I think they struck a deal before the suspension was given. I can't remember off-hand.
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Post by Nuke LaLoosh Express on Feb 4, 2009 21:09:16 GMT -5
The deal and off-season signing was nearly simultaneous. It was another "Bavasi Blunder" not re-signing Guillen if he really thought the Mariners stood a chance at winning in 2008.
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Post by Rusty Trombones - Jackson on Feb 4, 2009 22:00:55 GMT -5
If you want to pick on the Fontenot pick, then you need to pick on everyone around him as well. As I said before, Lind, Bartlett, Swisher, & Polanco seem to have very questionable value and were all drafted around Fontenot. That has been my contention to begin with. He was the 190th player taken. Comparable to the 16th round in a regular 12 team league. Stewart was not a bad pick for the round. I was looking at him too, and would have drafted him if I could have. Point was that he will have less value than Fontenot this year because of the difference in production from a 2B to an OF. If he does that, then he's as valuable or more valuable than many of the players taken around him. That's not a bad pick! That's all I've been trying to say! Did you catch Aybar's SB% in the minors when he was stealing all those bases? SB/CS 51/36 in A ball 49/23 in AA ball & 32/18 in AAA ball. That doesn't translate well into MLB. In the 1 year that he played AAA, his OBP was .327. None of that bodes well for the Big Show, IMO. Saying he'll be lucky to get over a .300 OBP was an exaggeration, but is .314 much better compared to .360? Listen fuckhead Erick Aybar is the next Pat Listach. |
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